As pairs of states go, it's difficult to get more similar than the Dakotas, at least geographically: large, rural states with large Native populations and whose population centers are oriented on the eastern border of the states.
Politically as well, they are two states where the federal/state level divide has lasted a long time: in North Dakota, from 1987-2011, all three members of Congress were Democrats, even as the state hasn't had a Democratic Governor since, 1993. In South Dakota, Democrats haven't elected a Governor of their own since 1979, but from 2004-2011, 2/3 statewide federal officeholders were Democrats.
Now, political realignment has found the Dakotas. Only 2/6 federal officeholders are now Democrats, and that number will likely be 1/6 after the 2014 elections. It's getting bleaker by the year to be a Democrat in the great plains.
So I wanted to show how the Democrats and Republicans could get 1 Dakota each. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: East and West Dakota.
East Dakota
Population: 775,893 (2010 Census)
Demographics (VAP): 83.4 White (86.7), 9.3 Native (7.6)
Capital: Aberdeen
2008 Pres: 50.8 Obama
2012 Pres: 51.7 Romney
The main focus of East Dakota was combining the two largest urban areas of the Dakotas (Fargo and Sioux Falls), and adding as many Native American areas as were feasible. The state is very Democratic downballot, as this shows:
- In 2012, Heidi Heitkamp won the North Dakota portion of East Dakota with 57.1%, way up from 50.24% in the ND race.
- By the same token, Pam Gulleson, who got hosed 55-42 in 2012, would instead perform much better, with 48.2%
- But Gulleson wouldn't even have had to run in 2012, because Earl Pomeroy could have still been running as an incumbent. He won the ND part of ED with 51.8% of the vote, up from his 55-45 loss in 2010.
In the South Dakota portion, the story is the same:
- In 2010, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin lost a heartbreakingly close race, losing 48-46 to Kristi Noem, with the balance going to an independent. In the SD portion of ED, SHS takes 50.6%
- In 2012, Matt Varilek was drubbed by Noem, 57.5-42.5. In ED, he performs much better, with 48%.
Who lives here:
Pam Gulleson, 2012 nominee for ND-AL
Ryan Taylor, 2012 nominee for ND-Gov
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, former SD Rep.
Who doesn't:
Heidi Heitkamp, ND Senator
Earl Pomeroy, former ND Rep.
West Dakota
Population: 710,878 (2010 Census)
Demographics (VAP): 86 White (92), 4.5 Native (3.9)
Capital: Bismarck
2008 Pres: 59.5 McCain
2012 Pres: 64.4 Romney
The remainder, largely rural, very white, but with large cities (for the Dakotas) of Minot, Rapid City and both original Dakota capitals of Pierre and Bismarck.
- In 2012, Rick Berg lost the North Dakota Senate race 50-49. But in the ND portion of West Dakota, he won handsomely, with 55.9% of the vote.
- Also in 2012, Kevin Cramer won North Dakota 55-42 against Pam Gulleson. In West Dakota, he got 60.9% of the vote in ND/WD.
- In 2010, Rick Berg deafeated Pomeroy 55-45. In ND/WD, he won with 60.4% of the vote.
In the South Dakota portion:
- In 2010, Kristi Noem won SD-AL 48-46. In WD, she wins the SD portion with 53.5%
- In 2012, Noem won SD-AL 57.5-42.5. In WD, she wins the SD portion with 63.8%
Who lives here
John Hoeven, ND senator
Kristi Noem, SD Rep.
Mike Rounds, former SD Governor and 2014 SD Senate candidate
Dennis Daugaard, SD Governor
Jack Dalrymple, ND Governor
Who doesn't
John Thune, SD Senator
So each party gets a Dakota. Why would the Republicans want to do this when they can pretty reliably get both now? They wouldn't, but this diary is for them, so fuck 'em.
Thanks for reading!