Are you ready for Sestak (D) vs. Toomey (R) round 2?
J.J. Balaban, a political operative who made the TV ads for former Congressman and decorated Admiral Joe Sestak’s (D. PA) 2010 U.S. Senate campaign, recently penned a piece for PoliticsPA that makes a very strong case for why Sestak will be the Democratic nominee to take out Tea Party Senator Pat Toomey (R. PA) in 2016. Mr. Balaban gave me permission to republish his piece to the Daily Kos:
http://www.politicspa.com/...
In politics, it pays to watch what people do, rather than what they say. PoliticsPA missed the boat by not following that lesson in its coverage of the 2016 U.S. Senate race earlier this month.
In the six weeks since the mid-term elections, it has become clear that former 3-star Admiral Joe Sestak is the favorite to be the Democratic nominee against Pat Toomey. Credible candidates like Matt Cartwright, Rob McCord, Kathleen Kane, Katie McGinty, and Allyson Schwartz have either announced they would not run or have taken jobs that would preclude them from getting in the race.
While Sestak has garnered significant party support around the state, a handful of party leaders who opposed Sestak’s 2010 challenge to Arlen Specter remain cool to his 2016 candidacy. But by focusing on those party leaders who still hold a grudge, PoliticsPA failed to analyze why Sestak is going to be the nominee anyway:
1) Joe Sestak has overperformed in every election he has run
In February of 2006, Joe returned to Delaware County after an absence of 31 years to serve in the Navy, and dismantled longtime incumbent Congressman Curt Weldon by 12% in a district with more Republicans than Democrats that had sent only one other Democrat to Congress since the Civil War.
Once elected, he engineered a legendary constituent service operation that handled four times as many constituent issues as the average Member of Congress….in part by keeping his congressional office open on nights and weekends to handle the needs of working people unable to visit a congressional office during normal business hours. Sestak got re-elected by 20% without spending a dime on direct voter contact beyond yard signs, even though his Republican opponent ran attack ads on TV against him.
In the 2010 Democratic primary, Arlen Specter had the strong support of labor, then-Governor Rendell, Senator Casey, and almost every Democratic interest group…but Sestak surged in one month from a 21% deficit to an 8% victory.
In the 2010 general election, Sestak lost, but once again overperformed relative to the rest of the ticket. Sestak – despite being outspent by a bigger margin than any Senate candidate in America – lost by less than 2% while the Pennsylvania Democratic gubernatorial nominee lost by 9% and 4 Democratic Congressmen lost their re-elections by broad margins (Patrick Murphy lost by 7%, Paul Kanjorski lost by 9%, Kathy Dahlkemper lost by 11%, and Chris Carney lost by 10%).
Given that track record, rank-and-file Democrats would understandably see Sestak – the highest-ranking military officer ever to elected to Congress – as their strongest standard-bearer in 2016….a year in which the electorate will be a lot more favorable than the 2010 electorate in which he only narrowly lost.
2) Sestak is the hardest-working candidate in Pennsylvania politics
After Sestak narrowly lost in 2010, he declined high-paying lobbying jobs that were offered to him. Instead, Sestak went to each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties to thank many of the 18,000 volunteers who had supported his campaign. He has kept up that pace since announcing more than a year ago that he intended to run for the Senate, holding more than 400 events for county commissioners and even school board candidates. He’s raised more than $13 million in his 2010 run for the Senate and has already raised $1.2 million for the 2016 campaign.
3) What is the argument against Joe Sestak’s candidacy that would work in a Democratic primary, where his independence is an asset?
Those members of the Democratic establishment cool to Sestak’s candidacy have demonstrated in the past several statewide elections in Pennsylvania a complete inability to win primaries. In 2010, Specter was supported by nearly every Democrat of note….and Sestak won. In 2012, most of that same group rallied behind Patrick Murphy to get the Democratic nomination for Attorney-General, but Kathleen Kane beat him handily. In 2014, the Democratic establishment split their support between Schwartz, McCord, and McGinty….but it was Tom Wolf who prevailed handily. (Note: Wolf pulled into such a large lead so early in the process that he attracted some support from the party establishment before the primary election, but he had virtually none before he rocketed into the lead and looked like the clear frontrunner.)
Sestak is better-known and better-liked by Democratic voters and insiders (as a whole) today than he was in 2010, when he toppled Arlen Specter – the longest-serving Senator in Pennsylvania history – despite Specter’s huge financial advantage and unanimous support from party leaders. Someone could emerge to challenge Sestak in the Democratic primary, but there’s a reason why the past 6 weeks have seen a lot of credible candidates decline to do so. - J.J. Balaban, PoliticsPA, 12/17/14
Toomey can be beaten but he's a more challenging incumbent to defeat unlike outgoing Tea Party Governor Tom Corbett (R. PA). Hence why a lot of Democrats are not eager to jump into this race. But Sestak has already been gearing up for a rematch and is eager to take out Toomey this time:
http://www.philly.com/...
Part of the reason is that the 2016 presidential race will soon create competition for staff and donations, Larry Ceisler, a Democratic analyst, said.
Another factor: the creep and cost of ever-longer campaigns.
Some ads in this year's Senate races aired a year and a half before Election Day. Candidates combined to spend $30 million or more in the top races, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics - and those contests weren't in states with media markets as costly as Philadelphia's.
"To raise that level of resources, you can't get started late," said J.J. Balaban, who produced ads for Sestak in 2010.
Sestak hasn't waited.
"He's openly fund-raising and campaigning," said Joe Hoeffel, a former Democratic congressman from Montgomery County. "He hasn't officially declared, but he's certainly declaring privately that he's running."
Hoeffel once employed Shapiro as chief of staff, but is backing Sestak. "He deserves another shot at this and he's very well-qualified," Hoeffel said.
Another ex-congressman, Bucks County Democrat Patrick Murphy, also predicted Sestak would be his party's nominee.
Some Democrats, though, recoil at Sestak's driving personality and were upset that he ran a 2010 primary against Arlen Specter after the longtime Republican senator switched parties.
"Joe runs outside the lines, let's put it that way," Ceisler said. "Even though he does things in a very unconventional way, he does them very successfully."
Sestak is itching for another chance after beating Specter - and the party's establishment - and then coming within two percentage points of topping Toomey in 2010 despite a GOP wave.
An aide said Sestak had done more than 400 events to help Democrats in the last two years, met with volunteers in 37 of Pennsylvania's counties, and visited all 67 counties after the 2010 race.
His campaign had $1.3 million on hand as of his latest report, and he regularly e-mails supporters his critiques of Toomey. - Philadelphia Inquirer, 12/11/14
And Sestak's early campaigning has even impressed his past detractors:
http://thehill.com/...
Josh Shapiro (D. PA)
“Joe’s done a very good job since he lost to Toomey of working the state, seeing Democrats, raising money. He’s a formidable opponent in a primary,” former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) told The Hill.
“Sestak, to his credit, has done a good job improving things. He had a real go-it-alone attitude,” said one Pennsylvania Democratic strategist. “There’s a reason there aren’t more people poking their heads out; he ran a hell of a campaign last time, and he’s learned from his mistakes.
Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro might be anti-Sestak Democrats’ best remaining hope for a challenger. Shapiro represents a large swing county in the state, is close to Wolf, and many view him as a bright, rising star. But Democrats in the state say he might be more likely to stay put for now.
Allegheny County Commissioner Rich Fitzgerald (D) and David Hickton, the U.S. attorney for western Pennsylvania, were also mentioned as potential candidates but haven’t made any moves toward a run. A self-funding candidate might step forward, but for now, it’s unclear who if anyone will challenge Sestak.
“There’s a core of desire to see another candidate, that another candidate could jump into. But I don’t see anyone who’s ready to take on that major challenge,” said Rendell, who had endorsed Specter against Sestak in 2010.
Whether Sestak faces a serious primary challenge or can focus exclusively on Toomey could make a big difference in the battle for Senate control in 2016. Toomey already has almost $6 million stockpiled. He has worked hard to burnish his bipartisan credentials and shed his Tea Party reputation. Democrats believe if Hillary Clinton is at the top of the ticket for president, they’ll be well-positioned to defeat Toomey, but they acknowledge he’ll be tough to beat. - The Hill, 12/17/14
2016 is going to be a different ball game than 2010. Sestak is making all the right moves to not only win the nominee but also get ready for victory. It's now up to guys like Shapiro to decide if he wants to give Sestak a primary battle or help get his fellow Democrats united in taking down Toomey. If you would like to help Sestak get ready, you can click here to donate or get involved with Sestak's campaign:
http://joesestak.com/