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IN-Sen: Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman has been flirting with a bid ever since Sen. Dan Coats announced his retirement in late March, and he
kicked off his campaign on Saturday. Stutzman will face Coats' former chief of staff Eric Holcomb in the primary, and we could see some real fireworks.
While the establishment-flavored Holcomb is a former state party chair and an ally of Coats and former Gov. Mitch Daniels, Stutzman hails from the tea party wing of the party. Stutzman, at the time a little-known state senator, refused to drop out of the 2010 primary after national Republicans brought Coats out of retirement. Stutzman earned the backing of influential tea partier Jim DeMint, and he lost by a relatively narrow 39-29 margin. If ex-Rep. John Hostettler hadn't been competing for a similar pool of voters, it's a good bet that the underfunded Stutzman would have pulled off an upset.
Stutzman soon arrived in the House after his predecessor resigned due to a sex scandal, and he never stopped being trouble for his party's leaders. Stutzman unsuccessfully challenged two better-connected colleagues in last year's majority whip contest, and he voted against John Boehner in January's speakership election. While groups like the Club For Growth might like Stutzman's antics, the NRSC is not going to be enamored by the possibility of having him as their nominee.
But this primary may get bigger soon. Rep. Todd Young has also been considering the race, and he may be able to appeal to the very conservative voters Stutzman needs without alienating national Republicans. Fellow Rep. Todd Rokita has also expressed interest and while he hasn't sounded quite as eager as Young, he's promised a decision within the next few weeks. There are also a few other Republicans who could also go for it.
Democrats would love for Stutzman to emerge as the GOP nominee. Stutzman's bad relationship with national Republicans could hamper him in the general election, and the congressman hasn't always shown much discipline. During the 2013 government shutdown, Stutzman infamously declared that he and his fellow House Republicans were "not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this. And I don’t know what that even is." While it's too early to declare that Stutzman is the second coming of Richard Mourdock, the disastrous 2012 Senate nominee who lost to Democrat Joe Donnelly, he might give Team Blue more of an opening than Holcomb or Coats.
Still, Indiana is a conservative state. It's going to take some luck for Democrats to win here, and the party is still looking for a viable candidate. The DSCC is holding out hope that popular former Sen. Evan Bayh will come out of retirement, but Bayh sounds unlikely to go for it (though Bayh is an unpredictable guy, so you never know what he'll do). Former Rep. Baron Hill, state Rep. Christina Hale, or Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott might run if Bayh doesn't. We'll be keeping a close eye on both sides' developing fields in what promises to be an exciting Senate race.
8:24 AM PT: On Wednesday, Daily Kos Elections' Jeff Singer will be attending Ballotpedia's Annual Meeting in New Orleans and giving a brief talk about DKE scheduled for 3:30 PM CT. If you're also attending, please say hi!
9:44 AM PT: Arlington Mayor: On Saturday, voters in America's 50th largest city ousted 12-year incumbent Robert Cluck. Cluck was perhaps best-known for bringing the Dallas Cowboys to Arlington, but the stadium he helped create seems to have played a role in his defeat. Cluck's opponent, former Chamber of Commerce chairman Jeff Williams, criticized the incumbent for failing to develop the areas near AT&T Stadium.
Red-light cameras also emerged as a major issue, with Williams hammering Cluck's support for the program. A referendum to ban the cameras passed 59.5-40.5, very similar to Williams' 58-39 margin against Cluck. Interestingly, the last time an incumbent mayor lost re-election was 1951, a time when Arlington was about 1/49 the size it is today.
9:54 AM PT: MD-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. and 2002 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Kathleen Kennedy Townsend spent months mulling a campaign for the state's open Senate seat, but she announced on Monday that she'll take a pass on the contest. Townsend will instead back Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who is competing with House colleague Donna Edwards in the primary. Townsend was once a rising star in Democratic politics, but she never recovered from her shaky 2002 campaign. While Townsend was very interested in resurrecting her career next year, there never seemed to be much excitement for her in Democratic circles, and it's not shocking that she's sitting this one out.
10:11 AM PT: San Antonio Mayor: Voters in Alamo City went to the polls on Saturday and chose two candidates to advance to the June 13 runoff. Unsurprisingly, ex-state Sen. Leticia Van de Putte, who served as last year's Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, took first with 30 percent. The contest for the second place spot was close, with interim Mayor Ivy Taylor edging former state Rep. Mike Villarreal 28-26; former Bexar County Commissioner Tommy Adkisson was far behind at 10 percent. So far Villarreal and Adkisson haven't endorsed either of the remaining candidates.
What little polling we had projected a Van de Putte-Taylor runoff, but the result is still notable. Villarreal has been running for about a year, while Taylor only jumped into the contest in late February. However, Taylor's polarizing record may have helped her, at least in the primary. While all four major candidates are Democrats, Taylor was able to appeal to the city's conservative base. Taylor notably opposed the non-discrimination ordinance in 2013 that was designed to protect gay residents, and her opposition to a planned streetcar project also struck a cord with Republicans. San Antonio leans Democratic but in a low-turnout runoff, conservative voters can give her a boost.
10:34 AM PT: IN-Gov: While John Gregg came unexpectedly close to beating Republican Gov. Mike Pence in 2012, plenty of Democrats were not excited when Gregg announced he would seek a rematch. Even though Gregg criticized the infamous Religious Freedom Restoration Act, which could have allowed businesses to refuse to serve gay people, he has a record of opposing same-sex marriage and taking some other conservative positions. State Sen. Karen Tallian is hoping to take advantage of Gregg's potential liabilities with the base, and she's just announced that she'll oppose him in the primary. Tallian isn't being subtle about her plan to run against Gregg from the left, calling herself "a clearer choice, and a more progressive choice."
There was little indication that Tallian was interested in running for governor before she said she was in, though Gregg himself said a few weeks ago that he thought she was considering. But Tallian says she's been talking to labor and women's groups in the last few months, though it's not clear how many of them are prepared to back her. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz says she'll decide in the next month whether to run, and Gregg's Democratic skeptics may prefer to wait on her before backing Tallian. State House Minority Leader Scott Pelath also recently confirmed that he's eyeing this contest.
Back in 2012 Pence looked like the clear favorite to win, and no serious Democrats challenged Gregg in the primary. However, with the governor posting weak poll numbers on the aftermath of the RFRA firestorm, more Hoosier Democrats are smelling blood, though an expensive primary could hamper them in the general.
10:53 AM PT (David Jarman): Demographics: Well, that was fast; members of Generation X had a total of three years at the top of the heap, in terms of being the generation taking up the largest share of the labor force. (Generation X is smaller than the Boomers or Millennials, so that's not that surprising.) Pew Research reports that Millennials (people born 1981-1997) just moved into first place, now taking up 34 percent of the labor force (with Xers also at 34 and Boomers at 29).
There are several explanations for this, both of which have tangential political implications. One, Millennials are increasingly finished with school (partly because of age, as many of them enter their 30s, also partly because the economy is improving and fewer of them are taking refuge in grad school). This might mean more voter participation by Millennials, as they take on more permanent addresses and get more integrated into the routinized activities of the adult world, like voting regularly. And second, there are lot more immigrants in the Millennial generation than previous generations; new immigrants are disproportionately in prime working years, rather than children or senior citizens, so they're swelling the ranks of the labor pool. That will also potentially swell the ranks of future Democrats, if and when they complete the citizenship process.
11:25 AM PT: PA-Sen: GOP pollster Harper Polling takes a look at the general election, and they find some very good numbers for Republican incumbent Pat Toomey:
• 54-30 vs. Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski
• 53-32 vs. 2010 nominee Joe Sestak
• 55-27 vs. Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro
It's not too surprising that the relatively unknown trio of Democrats don't poll too well (multiple polls have shown that a huge portion of the state doesn't even remember Sestak). But if Toomey is already clearing 50 percent, that's an incredibly bad sign for Team Blue. Right now Sestak and Pawlowski are running, but national Democrats are
hoping to persuade Shapiro to jump in.
A few pollsters have taken a look at hypothetical general election matches in the last few months and while this is the best Toomey's polled, we can't just dismiss it as a complete outlier. In mid-March, Quinnipiac gave Toomey a 48-35 edge against Sestak (the others weren't tested). Franklin & Marshall College found things much closer with Toomey up only 34-29 but with so many undecideds it's hard to make any conclusions. Back in January, PPP gave Toomey a modest 40-36 lead against Sestak and a 43-31 edge against Shapiro.
There's just not enough polling out there to indicate whether Toomey has established a clear lead in this light-blue state or whether he should prepare for a dogfight next year. Still, it's unlikely that the DSCC would be spending so much of their time trying to recruit Shapiro if they thought Toomey was this far ahead.
P.S.: As the National Journal's Alex Roarty reminds us, two years ago the NRSC dismissed Harper Polling after it showed some ugly results, with their spokesman Brad Dayspring memorably arguing their poll "might as well have been written in crayon." We'll see if they feel the same now that Harper's showing numbers they like, or if this pollster has been upgraded to Mr. Sketch status.
11:55 AM PT: NV-Sen: Well, this would suck for Team Blue. Republican. Joe Heck had initially ruled out running for this open seat, and even when he began publicly reconsidering, he still seemed unlikely to go for it. But Jon Ralston tells us that while nothing has been decided, Heck is "moving closer to a bid."
Besides Gov. Brian Sandoval, who is incredibly reluctant to run, Heck is probably the state's most formidable Republican. Heck is a great fundraiser and he's easily held his swing seat in the last two cycles. Heck also has a reputation as a moderate that could come in handy during a statewide bid. And while other centrist-looking Republicans might need to watch their back in a primary, Heck has done a good job staying on good terms with conservative groups, and he's likely to clear the field if he jumps in. While conservative Las Vegas Councilor Bob Beers might stay in, he probably isn't strong enough to be little more than a speedbump for Heck.
Still, it's far from inevitable that Heck goes for a promotion, and Roll Call's Alexis Levinson checks in with some other potential GOP contenders. While Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison has looked interested in the past, Sen. Dean Heller told Roll Call that he's "not interested." Former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki has talked about it, but GOP sources are convinced he won't make a serious run for this seat.
State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson has looked likely to run for the Senate for a while, but he'd defer to Heck. Former Assemblywoman and ex-Sandoval chief of staff Heidi Gansert is another potential candidate, but only if Heck stays out. The eventual GOP nominee is likely to face former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who has consolidated support from national Democrats, though Rep. Dina Titus has been talking about jumping in.
12:13 PM PT: NV-03: If Republican Rep. Joe Heck enters the Senate contest (see our NV-Sen item) it will open up his 50-49 Obama district. Heck has easily won this southern Nevada seat twice but both parties are expected to seriously contest it if it opens up, and the GOP may already have a candidate.
State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson has been flirting with a Senate bid, but both Roll Call and Jon Ralston report that if Heck seeks a promotion, he's likely to run here instead. Roberson is a great fundraiser and his district is located entirely in NV-03, so he'd have some good name recognition. But Roberson has a reputation as a moderate, and his support for Gov. Brian Sandoval's tax increase could leave him vulnerable in a primary. On the Democratic side, wealthy Communities in Schools of Nevada Board President Susie Lee has been publicly considering running regardless of what Heck does, though other Silver State Democrats may take a look if Heck goes.
1:13 PM PT: IN-Sen: Right now the GOP primary is a duel between Eric Holcomb, a former top aide to retiring Sen. Dan Coats, and tea partying Rep. Marlin Stutzman, but another Hoosier may be about to parachute in. State Sen. Jim Merritt has been eyeing a run for higher office and while he hasn't said anything publicly about his 2016 plans, Brian Howey tells us that he's "preparing to launch" a campaign.
1:42 PM PT: MS-01: Tuesday brings us one of the craziest races we've seen in a long time, as 13 candidates compete for two spots in the June 2 runoff. No one has any idea which two contenders will survive the non-partisan primary, though there's little question that the GOP will keep this northern Mississippi seat when all is said and done. Roll Call and The Clarion-Ledger takes a look at the various candidates' straights and weaknesses (or sometimes just weaknesses) in a pair of pieces that help shed some light on this unpredictable race. We've included the 13 candidates below, as well as some pertinent information about each:
• Boyce Adams (R): Businessman, 2011 Public Service Commission nominee: Has been advertising on television the longest, ally of Gov. Phil Bryant
• Sam Adcock (R): Airbus Helicopters executive, former aide to then-Sen. Trent Lott: Has Lott's endorsement, lives outside district
• Nancy Collins (R): State senator: Only woman in field, strong base of support in Tupelo
• Ed Holliday (R): Dentist, tea partier: Has spent very little money
• Starner Jones (R): Physician, tea partier: Has spent more than anyone, but questionable passages in his novel getting attention
• Trent Kelly (R): Multi-county district attorney: Represents about one-third of district, endorsed by wife of late Rep. Alan Nunnelee, but weak fundraiser
• Chip Mills (R): Itawamba County prosecutor: Good geographic base of support, son of prominent judge, endorsed by influential religious leader
• Greg Pirkle (R): Attorney: Good fundraiser
• Henry Ross (R): Attorney, former Eupora mayor, 2010 and 2012 candidate: Weak fundraiser, trying to scoop up tea party support
• Daniel Sparks (R): Attorney: Weak fundraiser, but has come across well at campaign appearances
• Mike Tagert (R): Transportation commissioner: Ally of former Gov. Haley Barbour, represents most of seat, good fundraiser, lives outside district
• Quentin Whitwell (R): Attorney, former Jackson city councilor: Prominent father
• Walter Zinn (D): Former Jackson mayoral aide: Only non-Republican, weak fundraiser
1:54 PM PT: WV-Gov: On Monday, Democratic billionaire Jim Justice kicked off his campaign to replace termed-out Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin. With a net worth of about $1.6 billion, Justice is the richest person in the state, but he's worked hard to portray himself as someone who has looked out for West Virginians. Justice has noted that he stayed in the state after striking it rich and has helped build or save resorts and sports complexes at home. However, his opponents are likely to zero in on the many fines and safety violations Justice's coal miners have wracked up.
Justice is the first major candidate to declare, but he won't be the last. On the Democratic side, Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler has filed papers to run but hasn't announced anything, and U.S. Attorney Booth Goodwin also hasn't ruled out a campaign. In the red corner, state Senate President Bill Cole recently filled out pre-candidacy papers and promises a decision within the next two weeks, while Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. David McKinley have also been flirting with bids.
2:08 PM PT: IN-03: Rep. Marlin Stutzman's decision to run for the Senate opens up his district, and the GOP should have no trouble holding this 63-36 Romney Fort Wayne-area seat. State Sen. Jim Banks, who recently returned from a deployment in Afghanistan, wasted little time announcing that he'll run to succeed Stutzman. Fellow state Sen. Liz Brown has also publicly confirmed her interest, and a local GOP county chair reports that Brown has also told him that she'll run. State Rep. Casey Cox hasn't ruled anything out yet, though he sounded likely to back Banks instead. State Rep. Bob Morris, who ran against Stutzman for this seat in 2010, has also been name-dropped.
2:16 PM PT: MN-07: Democrats are convinced that Rep. Collin Peterson will seek another term in this conservative seat, but he's never outright declared he's in. And sure enough, Peterson continues to leave himself some wiggle room, saying that he's "running until I'm not. Right now, I'm running." Republicans would celebrate if Peterson vacated this 54-44 Romney district, but the congressman still sounds more likely than not to seek another term, even predicting that the GOP won't target him because they'll be focusing on defending their own seats.
2:28 PM PT: KY-Gov: Republican Agriculture Commissioner James Comer has been on the defensive since a college girlfriend Marilyn Thomas publicly accused him of abusing her two decades ago. Comer has denied everything and claims that primary rival Hal Heiner paid her to lie, but this could complicate things. One of Thomas' college roommates has already come forward and said it was clear that Thomas had been in a violent relationship, and on Friday Jennifer Osborne, another old roommate, told The Courier-Journal that she also saw signs of abuse.
While Osborne says she never saw physical violence, she knew that Comer was emotionally abusive, and she wrote that "[o]n one occasion, there was a heated argument between Marilyn Thomas and Jamie Comer and I had to threaten to call the police in order to get him to leave our apartment." The May 19 GOP primary is rapidly approaching and while a recent PPP survey showed a tight three-way race between Comer, Heiner, and tea partying businessman Matt Bevin, Comer won't have much time to push back on these new allegations.
2:38 PM PT: NY State Senate: Republican state Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos fought hard to keep his leadership post after his arrest last Monday, and he even reportedly threatened to end his party's control of the chamber if he were ousted. But on Monday, Skelos bowed to reality and stepped down as leader, though he will stay in the Senate. Obama won his seat 54-46 and Democrats could try going after a weakened Skelos, assuming he doesn't end up leaving early after all. Still, Team Blue has had very little luck in Long Island state Senate races, and the GOP could very well hold onto this district in 2016.
2:44 PM PT: FL-Sen: Rep. Patrick Murphy has been vacuuming up support from national and state Democrats, and it's hard to see anyone besides wealthy Rep. Alan Grayson mounting a serious challenge against him in the primary. Still, former state Sen. and 2010 attorney general nominee Dan Gelber was careful not to rule out a campaign of his own when asked, though he says he's "not right now prepared to do it."