Here’s some Friday good news out of Virginia today:
Abortion has surged as a key issue for women and Democrats for the Nov. 7 legislative elections in Virginia, the last state in the South to hold out against restrictions on the procedure in the year since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
The election will decide whether Virginia remains a relatively liberal outlier among Southern states in areas such as guns, LGBTQ+ rights and criminal justice, or whether Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) can enact a conservative agenda that includes a ban on abortion after 15 weeks, with exceptions. Virginia’s off-year contests are the country’s only major races this year and could signal the national political mood heading into the 2024 presidential election.
With all 140 General Assembly seats on the ballot, Youngkin has prioritized winning full Republican control of the House of Delegates and state Senate as he weighs a last-minute run for president. He continues to get good marks from Virginians for his performance in office.
But registered voters are roughly divided when asked whether they favor a generic Democrat on the House of Delegates ballot over a Republican — at 47 percent to 43 percent, respectively — with an even tighter two-point gap among likely voters. Separately, 48 percent of all voters say they view united Republican control as a “bad thing” and 43 percent view it as a “good thing.”
Interest in the elections is running high across the board. Nearly 2 in 3 registered voters (65 percent) say they are following Virginia’s upcoming election very or somewhat closely, up from 47 percent who said this in late September 2019 but lower than 79 percent just before the 2021 election for governor. Still, just about 1 in 5 are following this year’s elections “very closely” (22 percent).
Here’s the latest updates on the race:
Heather Williams, interim president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said Friday she’s seeing “good signs” that the party will retake the Virginia House and keep control of the state Senate. But she stressed it was still too early to take any sort of victory lap.
Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and senior advisor for TargetSmart, a Democratic polling and data firm, also tamped down the early enthusiasm.
He said while some data points look promising for Democrats, like early turnout compared to the last two years, he expects tight battleground races and a tough battle for General Assembly control. Bonier predicted that a third of ballots cast in Virginia this year will be early votes.
“Everything we’re seeing is consistent with a very close race” for control, Bonier said in a virtual press conference hosted by the DLCC.
Bonier said he’s seeing growing intensity for early voting from Democrats and Republicans, noting that GOP turnout is likely up because of the party’s new embrace of early voting spearheaded by Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
An analysis of early voting numbers from the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, as of Oct. 19, shows nearly 321,000 Virginians have either voted early in person or through the mail.
Click here to find your polling place in Virginia.
Let’s keep up the momentum to flip Virginia Blue and stop Youngkin from enforcing an abortion ban. Click here to donate and get involved with the Virginia Democratic Party.